ESPN predicts the winner of Alabama football vs Georgia Bulldogs

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The Alabama Crimson Tide are aiming for their first road win of the 2025 college football season as they visit Sanford Stadium in Athens for a top 25 showdown against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Alabama has been on the winning end of the series against Georgia for the better part of the last 15 years. The Bulldogs' lone victory in the head-to-head series in that span was in a national championship game rematch of the 2021 SEC title game, a 33-18 Georgia win in Indianapolis on Jan. 10, 2022.

In what was Nick Saban's final win as a head coach, Alabama knocked off Kirby Smart's Bulldogs in the 2023 SEC Championship Game to hand Georgia its first loss since that 2021 clash for the conference crown at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta two years earlier. The Crimson Tide won a hectic 41-34 classic in Tuscaloosa last year.

Dating back to 2008's infamous "Blackout Game" in Athens, Alabama has won nine of the last 10 meetings against Georgia, including a 4-1 mark since 2020.

Ahead of the sixth meeting between the two programs since Alabama's 2020 national championship season, ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index (FPI) ratings and other variables, has given its odds for Saturday night's matchup between the hedges.

ESPN gives Georgia a 54.8 percent chance to win vs. 45.2 percent for Alabama.

The Tide and Bulldogs are neck-and-neck in the FPI ratings. Alabama is No. 3 while Georgia is No. 4. Kalen DeBoer's team has a 22.2 overall rating while the Dawgs have a 21.7 mark.

Alabama (2-1 overall) is No. 16 in this week's US LBM Coaches Poll, where Georgia (3-0) sits at No. 3 following its 44-41 overtime win at Tennessee on Sept. 13.

Quarterback Ty Simpson looked sharp in Alabama's 38-14 win over Wisconsin in Week 3, completing 24-of-29 passes for a season-high 382 yards and four touchdowns to three different receivers. Ryan Williams had five catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns, and senior Germie Bernard had four catches for 62 yards.

Kickoff for Alabama-Georgia is set for 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on ABC.

Alabama football odds of reaching 2025 College Football Playoff

In the updated FPI ratings, Alabama's chances of reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff are an even 50.0 percent entering Week 5's clash. The Crimson Tide are given a 17.9 percent chance of winning the SEC title, a 13.1 percent chance to reach the national championship game, and a 7.4 percent shot of winning the national title.

Alabama trails only the Oregon Ducks (23.6) and Ohio State Buckeyes (22.4) in the latest FPI ratings.

What are ESPN FPI ratings?

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

SEC football teams, ranked by ESPN FPI

Alabama football schedule 2025

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia, 6:30 p.m., ABC
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m., ABC or ESPN
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri, 11 a.m., ABC or ESPN
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee, TBA
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina, TBA
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU, prime time
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma, TBA
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn, TBA

Follow us at @RollTideWire on X, and like our page on Facebook, for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Georgia in Week 5 clash, per ESPN



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