Sam Presti has interesting theory on polarizing 3-2-1 NBA draft lottery odds

One of the more radical changes in recent NBA history will be implemented in the upcoming 2026-27 regular season. To fight off the self-proclaimed tanking epidemic, Adam Silver and the Board of Governors have completely shaken up the usual NBA draft lottery odds formula.

Now, there's really zero incentive to bottom out. In fact, it's the opposite. The draft lottery will expand from 14 to 16 teams. The seven best teams that do not qualify for the postseason will receive three lottery balls. The bottom three teams in the standings will only get two lottery balls. The No. 9-10 play-in tournament teams will get two lottery balls apiece. And the No. 7 vs. No. 8 seed play-in tournament game losers will get three lottery balls apiece.

Got all that? It can be a bit confusing to properly understand, but the gist of it is the worse your record is, the fewer lottery balls you'll receive. And teams will now have even more incentive to advance in the play-in tournament. Either they clinch a playoff spot or are tied for the most lottery balls that you can get.

In his 2026-27 preseason press conference, Sam Presti talked about the changes. Entering his 19th season as the Thunder GM, the longtime front office staple has seen about every scenario imaginable. His main working theory behind the lottery changes? It's going to raise the bottom-third of the league.

"Putting aside the solution of the way we're going to do the draft and stuff like that for a second — because I think that's a whole different story," Presti said. "But when we look at it, we think that we're going to see net ratings and records that are more similar to the '80s. Not because of style of play or anything like that, but the bottom of the league is going to be significantly stronger."

When Presti refers to the NBA's 1980s, he means he thinks overall records will get watered down a little. We saw three 60-plus wins this past season in the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons. It sounds like he doesn't believe we'll even get one of those high-winning machines this upcoming season.

All because the bottom of the league has zero reason to tank from the jump. No longer will we see teams like the Utah Jazz field glorified G League teams for the latter half of the regular season. The competitive advantage has disappeared. Now, it's all about being competently competitive. Even if your talent level is not at the same level as the upper two-thirds of the league.

"I think it's also going to stress rotations because games are going to go longer from a competitive standpoint," Presti said. "There will be a lot to learn from this. I do think it will have a lot of second-order effects. Not saying any of them are negative, but I think it'll be a bit of a calibration. But I do think the numbers are going to come down. And that's a positive thing because we're getting everybody incentivized in the right direction."

It's important to note that these new NBA draft lottery odds are only in effect until 2029. So the next three lotteries will play with these funky percentages. But after that? The league's top decision-makers will likely see how it's played out and make the proper adjustments. Once they cross that bridge, Presti hopes that the unintended consequences of this seismic rule change don't destroy small-market teams.

In terms of how this affects OKC's short-term future, it has LA's 2027 first-round pick swap rights. It also has Denver's 2027 top-five protected first-round pick. Unlike in previous years, that puts the Thunder in a weird spot where they're likely rooting for the Clippers to be decent, but also ultimately fall short of the 2027 NBA playoffs.

"The next order of business will be to make sure the teams that are giving their best and are trying their hardest but still can't win — because it's very hard to win in the NBA — have fair access that's not completely random to the best players in the draft," Presti said. "That's the next order of business. But I couldn't be more excited about the season. I think it's going to be highly competitive."

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Sam Presti has interesting theory on polarizing 3-2-1 NBA draft lottery odds

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